Tuesday 21 June 2016

Auto & Environment: EV Numbers and Growth in Hong Kong as of April 2015

EV Growth in Hong Kong
Image from Locky's English Playground
First, thanks to all media for using my Tesla Model S estimate in Hong Kong. After 3 months of waiting, it is time for me to offer you another EV growth update in Hong Kong.


Key points:

  • March is a critical month
  • Total number of EVs is now over 5000
  • March 2016 saw another record-breaking EV number of 513
  • 1 in every 4 new cars added in March 2016 is an EV
  • EV now constitute to 0.63% of total number of registered vehicles


As expected, January and February 2016 were the quiet(er) months for the EV market in Hong Kong. 270 in January 2016 and 164 in February are low when compared to the excellent Q4 2015, but March 2016 saw a strong pickup once more, hitting a record high of 513. March 2016 has also yielded a stunning 24.99% of EV purchase per new car, that gives 1 EV in every 4 new cars added. EV now constitute to 0.63% of total number of registered vehicles.

Personally, I hope it will continue to do this well before EV FRT waiver ends/extends in March 2017, because with increasing EV appearances on the roads, I am already witnessing an improvement of roadside air quality. (It is hard not to notice when there are EVs on the road ever minute or so.)

With previously 70% market penetration and ever-increasing road sighting as well as Supercharger waiting time, Tesla is expected to do well in the first quarter.

Tesla Model S estimate
Image from Locky's English Playground

I have added a column (right) calculating the total number of Tesla Model S with the assumption that Tesla sold only half as many Model S as my more accurate estimate (left).

Key points:
  • Accurate estimate shows 72% of EVs in Hong Kong are Tesla Model S.
  • Average of the estimates shows 68.5% of EVs in Hong Kong are Tesla Model S.
  • The above two percentages are close to 70%, which is the percentage I will use for easy referencing.
  • Estimates of Tesla Model S sales numbers in 2014 are having lesser effect on the latest estimate.
  • Latest estimate of Tesla Model S population is expected to improve in accuracy with time and EV growth.

As for our fight for Tesla Calendar and therefore against premature death of EV growth in Hong Kong, we will be meeting LegCo member Hon. Charles Mok and personnel from the Transport Department of Hong Kong. For a summary of the whole incident/incidence, click here.



Resources:
Auto & Environment: EV Numbers and Growth (Estimates) in Hong Kong as of Dec 2015 (Pre-TD Figures) @Locky's English Playground

Auto & Environment: EV Numbers and Growth in Hong Kong as of Dec 2015 @Locky's English Playground

Auto & Technology: Who needs Tesla Calendar when you got this? (Summary) @Locky's English Playground
http://lockyep.blogspot.hk/2016/06/auto-technology-who-needs-tesla.html